This is a tough question to answer....typically when the light shifts spectrum....THis is where my appogee light meter comes in handy...:splitspin..I test my bulbs when they are new so I have a starting point and then test after the 7 month mark....My reeflux lasted roughly 10 months. A lot of people just replace bulbs yearly. This is tough to gauge...to many variables...?? Are they overdriven, Air cooled/fan cooled, photo period....No two bulbs are alike with operating conditions. My system(250w se w/electronic ballast) is run with a photo period of 5 hrs daily. And the bulbs are not directly cooled in any way nor are overdriven. Hope this helps.