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mkirda

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John_Brandt":4jyjwab0 said:
Peter,

I did not suggest that an equal number of data points (observations) must occur "on both sides" of the average. I suggested that an equal number of mortalities (dead fish) must occur on both sides of the average.

You could easily confuse Vitz (or any reader) into thinking I was wrong about what I stated.

The actual number of dead fish does not perfectly correlate to the actual number of observations made. Otherwise, we wouldn't seek to know the average.

John,

In all honesty, that sentence Vitz highlighted was not particularly well-worded. It almost appeared that you had confused mean and median.
As I cannot imagine you doing that, I just concluded that you worded the sentence poorly, hence the confusion.

You meant 'average' as arithmetic mean, I'm sure.

Regards.
Mike Kirda
 

PeterIMA

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John, Your first statement was misleading. Your last statement is also misleading. Frank Lallo asked about 300 retail stores in 3 areas of the country what was their mortality DOA/DAA (within 3 days). They did not give him raw numbers (e.g., 25 out of 100 on July 5th, 30 out of 250 on August 9th etc.). Rather they provided a percentage representing their average of all of their shipments (e.g. 65% for first store, 70% second store, 20% third store etc.). Frank then averaged these percentages for each region of the country. Hence, Frank did not deal with the raw data. In effect, he took the mean of the means from each retail store. He estimated that the mean percent morality was 30% on the west coast, 35% in the mid-west, and 60% on the east coast of the U.S.A.

I do not know what the statistical distribution of the raw data looks like (since I don't have it). I am not sure that the raw data (or even the store means obtained as percentage values) conform to an normal probability distribution. The magnitudes of the numbers being averaged have a bearing on the arithmetic mean derived. If there were a few large numbers (say 5 out of 100 reported 100% mortality) and the rest reported percent mortality values less than 25%, one could get a biased mean of means estimate.

I can't be sure that the statistical distribution that Frank's data were taken from was a normal probability distribution. For example, fisheries catch data approximate a gamma distribution. However, many fisheries biologists continue to calculate arithmetic means from the raw data. Fisheries catch data are often characterized by a few high values and a large proportion of zero values (approximates a gamma distribution). The arithmetic mean of such data is heavily scewed by the high values. Hence, calculating the arithmetic mean on these data is inappropriate.

Peter Rubec
 

dizzy

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Peter,
I'll ask my question here as well as the other thread. Are you saying 300 marine dealers actually responded to the questions from Frank Lallo? Where did he get the mailing list from? If 300 responded, then how many were sent the questionaires that didn't bother to respond?
Thanks Mitch
 

PeterIMA

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Mitch, Frank Lallo did his survey over the telephone. Being a hobbyist (and asking his questions in an informal manner) he apparently obtained candid responses, than might not have been forthcoming with a more formal survey (from a scientist such as myself).

Peter Rubec
 

dizzy

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Peter,
Honestly I don't think that a stranger calling on the phone asking about a store's DOAs is going to get much more than a cussing. Especially from the NY guys. How would these stores know if he was a PETA mole or not? I never heard of Frank Lallo before and I doubt that many of the stores did either. In order to get 300 responses he must have called several thousand stores. Who paid for the phone bills?
 

PeterIMA

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Mitch, Frank Lallo paid for the phone calls. I will try to obtain more information form him on how he conducted his survey.

Peter
 

dizzy

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Thanks Peter,
I just think something smells fishy about the 60% and the number of responses. I'm a fellow retailer with 18-years plus experience and I doubt that even I could get more than a couple of dozen stores to tell me anything about their DOAs on the phone. As the robot on Lost In Space used to say "It does not compute."
 

Jaime Baquero

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Peter,


I do remember I met Frank Lallo many years ago during one of the MACNA events. What is Frank Lallo's background to undertake this kind of survey ?
Frank is an honest man but has not the training to do this study. Probably he wanted to do something good helping Peter with the survey. No offense, but if I remember Frank is in the transport business.

Jaime
 

PeterIMA

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Frank Lallo is a retired plumber. He moved from New York to LosVegas. He has a bad back. Hence, he can not work as a plumber. However, Frank is very inciteful. He is good on the telephone. He can talk in layperson's terms and gain peoples' confidence. I was impressed by his initiative with the telephone survey. I believe the results that were obtained.

Peter Rubec
 

dizzy

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Peter,
You only need to know three things to be a plumber.
1. Crap runs downhill.
2. The boss is a S.o.B.
3. Paydays on Friday. :lol:

Wow I didn't know rdo had autocensor. I guess I never tried to use sh*t before.
 

PeterIMA

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Dizzy, I believe that you are like Frank Lallo (inciteful, honest, and not willing to put up with any crap). Lets see what the autocensor does with this.

Peter
 

MaryHM

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I just think something smells fishy about the 60% and the number of responses. I'm a fellow retailer with 18-years plus experience and I doubt that even I could get more than a couple of dozen stores to tell me anything about their DOAs on the phone.

Dizzy, I agree 99.682%. That statistic is from a mental poll taken among all of my personalities. :lol:

As someone who calls retailers for a living, especially "cold calling" stores I've never talked to, it's extremely difficult to get them to tell you if they buy fish from LA, much less any other serious information. Retail store owners are extremely protective of their personal information, understandably. If someone called me up on the phone, even if they said they were doing research for the good of all mankind, there is no way I'd give out my DOA data. It's no ones business, and as Mitch said, this industry is very wary of PETA types. It would be great to hear from Mr. Lallo himself about how this was done. If it's as you say, Peter, I just may have found myself a new salesperson. ;)
 

sdcfish

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Friends,

I will speak out coming from a wholesalers perspective about this high percentage of doa's/daa's being claimed.

Sea Dwelling Creatures, Inc. ships about 500 retailers per week....every week, year round. That does not count for the many local retailers that come and shop every week.

SDC tracks all doa's and complaints reported on an excel sheet and reviews that list daily.

SDC has a company doa policy that has been in effect for many years and issues credits for doa's when requested by the customer. SDC has a 3% deductable for any doa's reported within 24 hours, but any problems after the 24 hour period are still welcomed and considered for further credit.

It is the company policy that doa credits are issued to the customer on their next invoice. All credit's and doa's reported are filed and reviewed by owners in a timely manner so they can be made aware of any consistent problems for husbandy and buying purposes.

Yesterday, I spoke to three new customers of SDC as a follow up call on their first orders, and this was the result.

One customer Minneapolis - $2100 order, delayed in Phoenix 6 hours and received their order finally at 7pm the day after leaving LAX. Customer reported to me that 5 fish were doa, the rest were doing great. This customer did not bother to report any doa's as their privelege was to.

Another new customer received a $650 order in Arkansas... and received ZERO doa. All fish were doing great and customer was very happy. Nice guy...and now happy to have finally tried SDC.

The last customer I spoke to yesterday was a nice lady in South Carolina. She took a $1200 order and had no doa's to report although she did say she lost a few fish over night. Fish were doing great, eating and was also very happy.

I understand this is just a small sampling obviously of yesterdays follow up calls, but I can assure you that it's more like these than others who are having major problems.

I would estimate our national average is around 2% doa overall, but I would say it's only that high because of freight delay's, weather related, or just certain customers only buy difficult species or high end items which if one of those die, it's a higher percentage of their invoice.

I have a few customers that quarantine their fish some for 7 days and others for 30 days.

Those reporting 30 day doa's/daa's are usually in the 10-12% range.

We have many customers that report perfect shipments with ZERO doa's and we also have many customers that report minor doa's regularly too.

I can honestly say that any customer that calls us with anything over 10% doa is a HUUUGE problem and we consider it to be very unusual. We train our sales staff to request specific information when such an occurance happens. Questions like, "Was your shipment delayed"? Was the water warm? Were the ice/heat packs still cold/warm? Were the boxes trashed by the airlines? Did you notice anything unusual about the dead animals that could give us clues as to why the fish were dead?

This does happen from time to time and we try to deal with it as logically and scientifically as possible.

This talk of 60% averaage doa's/daa's is just way out of anything we have ever seen over the 10 years or more that we have been in business.

We have had 30 box shipments sent to New York, Not paid for by the customer due to "could not get to the bank to get that Certified Check as promised" so we tell the airlines to ship it back to us. That was about 6 months ago and we had 5% doa's.


Please feel free to ask me any questions regarding our doa's. We are not hiding anything and in fact, are happy to disclose our findings from our studies.

By the way, MAC guidelines address customer's doa's and complaints where they are reported and documented in such a manner so they can be studied and dealt with in a timely fashion...pretty much like we have been doing for years anyway.

SDC tracks all fish and coral vendor by vendor so we always know who's fish are doing well, and whose aren't. If you are ever in SDC, you will see on every tank, the common name for the fish or coral, and a vendor number code next to the name.

Any questions?

Eric
 

Jaime Baquero

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eric,

Many thanks for sharing this information. Without doubt you are professionals and you DO know how to run your business. Congratulations for offering good quality fish and service to you customers.

I would like to ask a couple of questions>

1) Are you getting fish from the Philippines? If yes, what is the % .
2) How is the quality of the fish from the Philippines? Have you seen any changes in the last 5 years?

Many thanks in advance

Sincerely

Jaime Baquero
OVI
 

dizzy

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sdcfish":3sab8x8i said:
Any questions?Eric

Hi Eric,
I have one for you. What would you guess the national combined DOA/DAA total average for three days to be? I'm talking about averaging in everyone in the industry, good and bad. Cyanide and netcaught. East and West Coast and all points in between. I'm just asking for an educated guess here. What do you think?
Mitch
 

PeterIMA

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Frank Lallo's survey was conducted about four years ago. His figures are the death toll within 3 days. Many fish may arrive alive and die within 3 days due to stess etc.

Lets discuss mortality in those terms. SDC appears to deal more with the Death On Arrival (DOA). Although Death Within 30 days is of interest.

Thanks for posting the information.

Peter Rubec
 

MaryHM

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Even 60% in 3 days is ridiculous. Believe me, if customers were losing anywhere near that much on a regular basis I would hear about it. Also, keep in mind the math I did earlier. There is no way a store could be losing that much and make money on fish- they couldn't even break even. Why in the world would 300 stores regularly have 60% mortality on saltwater fish and continue to deal with them???
 

jamesw

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Eric,

Thanks for chiming in and sharing some of your information with us.

As you can see, no one has jumped on you and tried to make your business look bad...:) The moderators here are working VERY HARD to try to make this a forum where all of our members can feel free to post and contribute without fear of getting attacked.

Sincerely,
James Wiseman
 

PeterIMA

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Mary,

I spoke with Frank Lallo today (July 26, 2003). He conducted about 275 telephone interviews. Each interview lasted over an hour. Quite a lot of the information was gathered from some retailers (repeatedly) and some importers/wholesalers over a period of about two years. Issues discussed included the airlines, water quality in the bags, shipping times, maintenance regimes in the stores etc. Some of the data Frank gathered is shipment by shipment. Some of the information pertains to mortality over longer time periods than 3 days. Frank sticks to his assertion that the average east coast mortality was 60%. I will be speaking further with Frank and will obtain the raw data.

Peter Rubec
 
A

Anonymous

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Would be interseting to see. If you get it post it in a new thread to keep things simple.
 
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