theMeat

Advanced Reefer
Location
ny
Rating - 100%
29   0   0
You say that "people who feel strongly about this aren't going to recognize any conflicting info or facts" and I totally agree. Our society has created a huge avoidance from debate, leading people to staying within groups that agree with their own theory/beliefs. If anything this debate has forced me to research, look up, and reaffirmed my belief. There are many models and study that points to CO2 and the adverse affects on our environment, but few creditable source that support your claim. So aren't you one of the "people who feel strongly about this" and "aren't going to recognize any conflicting info or facts"?

If what you say is true and you do feel that way, then ....
This is how a debate works....
Someone puts forward info and then someone else tries to disprove it with other info or ideas. Together you mutually gain a better understanding

Let's look at the hockey stick. The hockey stick uses tree ring data until around 1970 when tree ring data no longer supported the hockey stick. So they then switched to thermometer readings. This is readily checkable, and keep in mind when checking, when your right there's reasons, when your wrong there's excuses.You can't compare apples to oranges and the current thermometer/weather station data is so flawed it can't be taken seriously. If you'd like proof of that it can be provided. NCEP data, from satellites, is the only accurate way to look at untainted data of the whole planet, including the oceans. Since it's satellites it only goes back about 35 years. You can't one year pick weather stations because it shows what you want, then the ncep because weather stations don't show what you want the next.
Here is ncep
WB2.png


You can see that last year was very warm, and there was some others very warm. Comparing that against only 35 years is hardly saying anything. Only being able to compare it to a warm pdo (pacific decadal oscillation) because the data only goes back so far, and claiming it's proof that we are and will continue to get warmer is trickery. You can also see a large time frame where temps fell while c02 continued to climb. That pic hardly looks like a hockey stick, eh

Solar cycles cannot be predicted. We are currently in solar cycle 24. The more active a solar cycle the more heat and radiation we receive. Solar cycles were building in strength until our current 24. Another reason for the warming. Lotsa people were saying 24 was going to be bigger than the last which is interesting because there is absolutely no way of knowing. Then 24 came and is as low as it's been in at least a century. Don't even want to get into that solar cycle 24 should have been ended and solar cycle 25 started because according to the rules set up long ago 24 went beyond the amount of days spotless that should have been, but...
The effects of a strong or weak solar cycle are mostly slow to be realized in terms of temp on the planet. But it's effects on slowing or speeding up the jet streams are pretty immediate. A weaker solar cycle means a slower jet stream. A slower jet stream means heat stays in the oceans with less wind to remove it. It also causes more north to south swings in the jet stream which is opposite of what a warmer planet, gw, was supposed to do. Yet more swings in the jet steam is what we have. You remember polar vortex?
this what was supposed to happen
hathaway2_med.gif


this what did
SILSO_Progression_Y2000Jan_Y2014September.png


Hurricanes where supposed to increase yet the ace index has been way down for decades now

The poles were supposed to be gone by 2013 and last time I checked they were still there. Which is why we are technically still in an ice age. And with oceans cooling around both poles now that isn't going to change anytime soon
 
Last edited:

theMeat

Advanced Reefer
Location
ny
Rating - 100%
29   0   0
Yes Predictions can be wrong, as all the agw models have shown. The ncep data chart and solar cycle chart provided are based on what is real and what has happened.
Total sea ice is down below average, as it should be after a warm phase of both the pacific and Atlantic. We'll see what happens now that they flipped to cool phase.
Funny how when we get above average ice melt it's agw, and when we get above average ice growth on Greenland and Antarctica it's agw too. Neat trick. Then a real shocker when we get above average winter growth, that we'd get above average summertime melt.

Greenland was always considered the canary in the coal mine. And last year everyone loved to talk about it's above average melt. This year it's breaking records for not melting and wintertime growth was off the charts and not a peep. They just went through a week or two of warmer temps so maybe now there will be some talk. But with it being the beginning of shorter days and falling temps that will be short lived
 

piranhapat

Advanced Reefer
Location
Westchester, N.Y
Rating - 100%
13   0   0
I totally agree with you ( the Meat) about the news only telling us what they want us to hear. I get that! The news will say anything to over react especially so they can make our President look even worst. What is causing our ocean getting warmer or what is causing bleaching to our coral worries me. This is what happening. Can our coral bounce back or build immunity? I don't know. I have read some are. I couldn't agree more.....The Fake News will only tell what they want us to hear.
 

salpet

Advanced Reefer
Location
westchester
Rating - 100%
31   0   0
I totally agree with you ( the Meat) about the news only telling us what they want us to hear. I get that! The news will say anything to over react especially so they can make our President look even worst. What is causing our ocean getting warmer or what is causing bleaching to our coral worries me. This is what happening. Can our coral bounce back or build immunity? I don't know. I have read some are. I couldn't agree more.....The Fake News will only tell what they want us to hear.
yup blame the reefs dying on fake news. oh by the way who invented fake news anyway.
 

theMeat

Advanced Reefer
Location
ny
Rating - 100%
29   0   0
yup blame the reefs dying on fake news. oh by the way who invented fake news anyway.
fake news has been around as long as people have. it's just running rampant now with news for profit.
Attacking someone for their opinion without adding anything to the conversation is trollish. And it seems that you really don't understand climate and are just watching some movie or whatever and just eating it up along with your popcorn without as much as a check on any of the info that has clearly pulled on your heartstrings but not your mind. Agree that politics and money should have no place in the gw debate but unfortunately we have more of that than any real unbiased info. We hear foolish proclamations like the debate is over. If we don't act now it will be too late. Heard that after the super Nino of 98'. heard it again when we reached 400 ppm c02. heard that the poles would be gone by now. Heard hurricanes would become more frequent. They even claim to know by how much to the tenth of a degree we can stop the rise in temps if we stop making c02. And it's all bs and for the most part all wrong.
Tried to share info that was relevant to the thread's topic. Which is 800 year lag, solar cycles, and the ocean's oscillations. Will try again
The biggest ocean and oscillation is the pacific (pdo). The pdo is huge in controlling climate and has a pretty consistent 70 year cycle of 35 years cool, 35 years warm. We entered a cool phase about 7-10 years ago and el ninos became weaker and less frequent while la ninas became stronger and more extreme just as it was supposed to. You can see that in temp data and some like to refer to it as the "pause". Then our solar cycle took a dive into the tank.

Solar activity in large part controls the speed of the jet stream. Solar activity got so low we had no idea how extreme it would effect things because it's been centuries since it was this low, and that was way before we had an understanding of weather/climate as we do now, and in those times it was the gods that controlled it. The first noticeable reaction was blocking around Australia which blocked the easterlies across the pacific which allowed heat to build in the central pacific and caused a strong el nino. and warmer waters around australia too. Normally easterly blocking happens for a few months at a time tops. This time it happened for 3-4 years which gave plenty of time for el nino to build. Easterlies are finally picking up and el nino is fading fast. As a matter of fact people were saying el nino was going to last, become another super nino, and was going to be so strong that'd cut the cool phase of the pdo off and send us into a warm phase way ahead of schedule. Kinda funny how people who claim to want to stop gw wish for things like this. Except what happened instead was el nino weakened, became a Modoki el nino, and now pressures are dropping all over the place showing la nina is on it's way. A super nino is off the table and la nina is expected to return. The water temps at the poles are also cooling way faster than it they warmed.

As far as the 800 year lag. Because water reacts to temps slower than air, and the sheer size and depths of the oceans is the reason for the lag. The time frame of the lag can be debated but the physics that it takes more time to make a bigger difference/change, and it gets harder to change the more extreme it becomes. I.E. your a/c can pretty easily change the temp a few degrees, but getting it to change 30 degrees becomes much harder.
The medieval warm period peaked around 1,200 years ago. It was almost as warm as it is now but for much longer. So if you want to blame something for today's ocean temps, that's it.

Will end this post with nobody knows what the climate will do. Just trying to point out that the real tried and true proven throu history climate driver tell that it will get cooler. So enjoy this interglacial while it lasts. We should all do our best to take care of this planet we call home, or we won't have one. That change is way overdue. And finally c02 has never, ever driven the climate. Even when it was much higher than it is now.
 
Last edited:

theMeat

Advanced Reefer
Location
ny
Rating - 100%
29   0   0
What's with all the question marks? Are you confused or something? Arctic blasts our reefs are getting?
Rented a house on the beach at Smith's Reef. Some of the best diving in the Caribbean, even right from shore. Some of the locals can show you some awesome spots to get to by boat. If you don't know anyone Deep Blue on the leeward side of Providenciales is great. Worth a day to get to the drop off on west side of West Cay
 

piranhapat

Advanced Reefer
Location
Westchester, N.Y
Rating - 100%
13   0   0
What's with all the question marks? Are you confused or something? Arctic blasts our reefs are getting?
Rented a house on the beach at Smith's Reef. Some of the best diving in the Caribbean, even right from shore. Some of the locals can show you some awesome spots to get to by boat. If you don't know anyone Deep Blue on the leeward side of Providenciales is great. Worth a day to get to the drop off on west side of West Cay

Thanks, I been at Providenciales 7 times. Every year I go there. I wish what I'm read at Turks was fake news . Crime of arm Robberies and shooting is up. Just read their in high alert to travel there. Real nice. The question mark are symbols like smiley faces or pictures but show normal but when I send its turns into a ? I don't no why...
 

Sponsor Reefs

We're a FREE website, and we exist because of hobbyists like YOU who help us run this community.

Click here to sponsor $10:


Top