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A review and discussion on the research of Dr. Peter Rubec
- Thread starter John_Brandt
- Start date
mkirda":3nb6f48v said:Greetings, all.
I talked to Peter about this thread last night.
One thing that needs to be said: The statistics presented, while anecdotal, were not particularly bad.
What do I mean by this? When you take a poll, the number of people polled has a lot to do with how accurate the data should be. If you ask ten people a question (n=10), your numbers are based on pretty shakey ground.
In this study, 300 retailers were polled. That number is significant, as it represents a significant percentage of the total number of fish stores in the US.
This was not a study where Peter called up five stores and happened to get the five worst ones. :wink:
In all honesty, the numbers do seem high to me as well, for this leg of the supply chain. I would love to see it broken down as Mary suggests, into transhippers vs. wholesalers. I can see how this could potentially affect the data gathered.
Regards.
Mike Kirda
Mike,
Sorry, but statistics need solid a concrete information to be considered as reliable. Anecdotal statistics ? :lol:
Jaime
Jaime, In the absence of more quantitative information fisheries management councils and coastal zone managers routinely use "expert opinion" and other anecdotal information. If the trade disagrees with the estimates that I have presented, they need to come up with better data. But as Dizzy and Mary have already stated, the trade is not very good at sharing information within the industry. So, it is unlikely that they will gather data to share with the scientific community or regulatory agencies.
Peter Rubec
Peter Rubec
I'm not sure if an AMDA only questionaire would be accurate.. I'm not sure it would be a good sample of stores in general as at least some of the AMDA stores are trying to do better than average... you would probably see lower DOA/DAA #'s from an AMDA poll vs. a non AMDA poll.
Jaime Baquero":3poti49t said:Mike,
Sorry, but statistics need solid a concrete information to be considered as reliable. Anecdotal statistics ? :lol:
Jaime
An, Jaime, in absence of any and all other sources of data, what would you do?
I completely recognize this data set for what it is. I have also voiced my opinion that it strikes me as being too high, but at the same time, what informs me? Surely the sum total of my experience and knowledge is far less than a poll of 300 stores. I doubt I have even visited 50 separate fish stores in my lifetime as a hobbyist. Where I have even an impression of DOA/DAA numbers, it is from *maybe* a handful. See where I am going? My own 'data set' is far smaller... And therefore inherently even less reliable, Jaime. Imagine if the paper had an N of 5 vs. and N of 300? Heck, even I would be all over that...
In absence of other data, you have to go with what is available. And you have to recognize the limitations, and temper your responses accordingly.
Surely you learned this in college?
Regards.
Mike Kirda
Dizzy, I am willing to design a scientifically valid questionaire. I would rather it was made available to a variety of trade groups (e.g., PIJAC, OFI). It can only succeed if persons in the trade become involved with distributing it and can solicit honest responses.
There should be an agreement (MOU) with these trade groups concering the use of the information to protect those filling in the questionaires.
For example, the MOU might state:
a) that no names of companies or individuals would be gathered or reported.
b) the information would only be used in aggregated form (e.g., by geographic region.
c) that the information would not be used to support law enforcement efforts (e.g., enforcement of the Lacey Act).
d) that the information if only intended to identify the magnitude of the problem.
e) that the information would not be accessible to the IRS.
The information would only be distributed after it has been reviewed by trade representatives.
I solicit ideas concerning whether this is possible or not.
Peter Rubec
There should be an agreement (MOU) with these trade groups concering the use of the information to protect those filling in the questionaires.
For example, the MOU might state:
a) that no names of companies or individuals would be gathered or reported.
b) the information would only be used in aggregated form (e.g., by geographic region.
c) that the information would not be used to support law enforcement efforts (e.g., enforcement of the Lacey Act).
d) that the information if only intended to identify the magnitude of the problem.
e) that the information would not be accessible to the IRS.
The information would only be distributed after it has been reviewed by trade representatives.
I solicit ideas concerning whether this is possible or not.
Peter Rubec
mkirda":2407vi17 said:Jaime Baquero":2407vi17 said:Mike,
Sorry, but statistics need solid a concrete information to be considered as reliable. Anecdotal statistics ? :lol:
Jaime
An, Jaime, in absence of any and all other sources of data, what would you do?
I completely recognize this data set for what it is. I have also voiced my opinion that it strikes me as being too high, but at the same time, what informs me? Surely the sum total of my experience and knowledge is far less than a poll of 300 stores. I doubt I have even visited 50 separate fish stores in my lifetime as a hobbyist. Where I have even an impression of DOA/DAA numbers, it is from *maybe* a handful. See where I am going? My own 'data set' is far smaller... And therefore inherently even less reliable, Jaime. Imagine if the paper had an N of 5 vs. and N of 300? Heck, even I would be all over that...
In absence of other data, you have to go with what is available. And you have to recognize the limitations, and temper your responses accordingly.
Surely you learned this in college?
Regards.
Mike Kirda
Mike,
During my university years I found that Bio-statistics was interesting. However, it was not my favorite subject. Other aspects attracted my attention such as coral reef ecology, malacology and icthiology among others.
I think the mortality issue to each level of the trade is paramount and has to be defined and identified the best possible way.
Why is there mortality? Many variables must be considered in the survey oriented to deal with the matter. Is it beacuse of: Effects of CN after capture? Poor handling and holding to fishers level? middelmen/women? shipping causes (including quality of water used by exporters to bag fish)?
Total Travel Time? Acclimatation techniques to each level)??
DAA depends on water quality and husbandry practices to importers and reatilers level, as well as knowledge of the staff taking care of the animals.. I understand it is a complicated matter.
I found, in my area, that some dealers blame cyanide as the cause of mortality after arrival, but the truth is that the water quality in their systems as well as husbandry practices and knowledge of staff is terrible.
If we want to solve a problem, we need to quantify the extend of it.
Of course that cyanide kills, but all the factors mention above also kill fish.
The question is in what %.
Does the industry want to know the real cause of DOA/DAA? If it does, a representative number of the industry must provide the information required. I consider this survey should be done by specialist in the field.
Mike, I am curious. What is your background?
Jaime
Why all a sudden, is there such a great call for a background check on EVERY LAST PERSON who wants to ingauge in this discussion? If your all so friggin concerned (not just you Jamie, this has happened several times in the past weeks) POST YOUR OWN BACKGROUND INFO IN YOUR RDO PROFILE, then all others can access at their own pace. If you all who are concerned did this, you all would know, and you won't have these petty comebacks that help nothing. Just a thought.
I consider this survey should be done by specialist in the field
Some one in the survey field, a professional? Sounds like a salary to me. I think Peter's new survey with his additional protection for the LFS is a good idea. I see NO problem with sending it to all groups working within the trade, ie. PIJAC, AMDA, OFI, etc. I think the wholesalers should also pass along this survey to their customers and ask them to fill it out, and send it back (without their name on it, just city/state) to Peter (or whom ever wants to conduct the survey). It should also be accessable via the internet, in a pdf form that then can be emailled to Peter. The survey needs to address all areas that kill fish, late flights, etc. Not just reccrding doa/daa, that really doesn't show much.
I consider this survey should be done by specialist in the field
Some one in the survey field, a professional? Sounds like a salary to me. I think Peter's new survey with his additional protection for the LFS is a good idea. I see NO problem with sending it to all groups working within the trade, ie. PIJAC, AMDA, OFI, etc. I think the wholesalers should also pass along this survey to their customers and ask them to fill it out, and send it back (without their name on it, just city/state) to Peter (or whom ever wants to conduct the survey). It should also be accessable via the internet, in a pdf form that then can be emailled to Peter. The survey needs to address all areas that kill fish, late flights, etc. Not just reccrding doa/daa, that really doesn't show much.
I spoke with Frank Lallo this afternoon. The information that he collected will be revealed on this forum and through an upcoming publication. Needless to say, it is everything and more than what I have stated. We can substantiate (in great detail) the mortality figures previously discussed.
Peter Rubec
Peter Rubec
Hello All,
I spoke to Peter this afternoon in reguards to the fish mortaity study & a few other things. Over the next few days or so I will attempt to find all the paper work & Tapes of the fish mortality study we did a few years back and post them here so everyone knows how it was done. Mind you I have moved several times & had two major back operations and I am not sure how much of the original study is left. I have to make my way to the storage facility & get someone to get up into the attic and start checking box'es. First however there are a few things I need to get off my chest about the industry, orginizations, & people. So lets get it out of the way.
The Industry.....For the most part a bunch of clowns, looking for nothing more then cash period. They could care less about Fish or the hobbiest, they are a bunch of yes men that will sell there mothers if it would bring up the bottom line.
Jamie P....If there ever was a whore of the hobby he is it. Sorry Jamie but you turn my stomach.....first compuserve, then Aol, now here. At least you are not begging for money this time. 10+ years and all the hobby has gott'in out of you is cheap talk. Yep....start to do something constructive and Jamie will be there for the first week or so then move on to the next if he see's the possiblity of money.
The uneducated hobbiest....The ones that find it easier to run back to the store and buy even more fish when they can't keep the ones they have alive.
Dr Pratt....A total waste, not even worth the time and effort.....When are you going to pay back Peter you hump. Remember where you were sleeping before Peter came to your rescue. Stand up and be a man.
Peter Rubec.... Tho we have had our difference's and there have been a few, Peter is among the very few whom truly care The time & personal money this man has spend is mind boggleing.
I spoke to Peter this afternoon in reguards to the fish mortaity study & a few other things. Over the next few days or so I will attempt to find all the paper work & Tapes of the fish mortality study we did a few years back and post them here so everyone knows how it was done. Mind you I have moved several times & had two major back operations and I am not sure how much of the original study is left. I have to make my way to the storage facility & get someone to get up into the attic and start checking box'es. First however there are a few things I need to get off my chest about the industry, orginizations, & people. So lets get it out of the way.
The Industry.....For the most part a bunch of clowns, looking for nothing more then cash period. They could care less about Fish or the hobbiest, they are a bunch of yes men that will sell there mothers if it would bring up the bottom line.
Jamie P....If there ever was a whore of the hobby he is it. Sorry Jamie but you turn my stomach.....first compuserve, then Aol, now here. At least you are not begging for money this time. 10+ years and all the hobby has gott'in out of you is cheap talk. Yep....start to do something constructive and Jamie will be there for the first week or so then move on to the next if he see's the possiblity of money.
The uneducated hobbiest....The ones that find it easier to run back to the store and buy even more fish when they can't keep the ones they have alive.
Dr Pratt....A total waste, not even worth the time and effort.....When are you going to pay back Peter you hump. Remember where you were sleeping before Peter came to your rescue. Stand up and be a man.
Peter Rubec.... Tho we have had our difference's and there have been a few, Peter is among the very few whom truly care The time & personal money this man has spend is mind boggleing.
Frank Lallo":2izcn2wq said:Hello All,
I spoke to Peter this afternoon in reguards to the fish mortaity study & a few other things. Over the next few days or so I will attempt to find all the paper work & Tapes of the fish mortality study we did a few years back and post them here so everyone knows how it was done. Mind you I have moved several times & had two major back operations and I am not sure how much of the original study is left. I have to make my way to the storage facility & get someone to get up into the attic and start checking box'es. First however there are a few things I need to get off my chest about the industry, orginizations, & people. So lets get it out of the way.
The Industry.....For the most part a bunch of clowns, looking for nothing more then cash period. They could care less about Fish or the hobbiest, they are a bunch of yes men that will sell there mothers if it would bring up the bottom line.
Jamie P....If there ever was a whore of the hobby he is it. Sorry Jamie but you turn my stomach.....first compuserve, then Aol, now here. At least you are not begging for money this time. 10+ years and all the hobby has gott'in out of you is cheap talk. Yep....start to do something constructive and Jamie will be there for the first week or so then move on to the next if he see's the possiblity of money.
The uneducated hobbiest....The ones that find it easier to run back to the store and buy even more fish when they can't keep the ones they have alive.
Dr Pratt....A total waste, not even worth the time and effort.....When are you going to pay back Peter you hump. Remember where you were sleeping before Peter came to your rescue. Stand up and be a man.
Peter Rubec.... Tho we have had our difference's and there have been a few, Peter is among the very few whom truly care The time & personal money this man has spend is mind boggleing.
Excellent choice of co-author Dr. Peter Rubec. Frank Lallo really bolsters the credibility of your work.
I tell it like it is...in english so everybody can understand. Some just don't tell you the truth. Here's a case in point.....When Kansas hosted Macna quite a few years back 7 of us sat and worked out an agreement over drinks to make an honest effort to nail down the mortality rates from the Phill: The biggest importer/exporter was at this meeting and flat out told us his mortality rate was well over 70%....a week after we all went home this importer/exporter had a lapse of memory. Oh by the way at least 3 of the people in this thread were at that meeting I was one, I will leave the other 2 for you to figure out. And it is not going to stop until the wolfves stop guarding the chicken coop.
Frankie
Frankie
clarionreef
Advanced Reefer
- Location
- San Francisco
You're right John,
I second your opinion regarding Peters excellent choice of a research partner. I share your view that someone with the courage of his convictions is a breath of fresh air around here. You don't even have to agree to endorse the exercise of freedom of speech here.
Imagine saying what you truly believe for a change instead of the self serving, economic determinist, political pandering we often get instead.
Frank has apparently witnessed many things over the years that members of this forum know nothing about...things that have outraged him as well they should anyone.
Tolerance of diversity of opinion defines the worth of this forum. Frank has raised some critical yet poorly understood issues in the "decade of token-reform" that typified the 90"s.
Tell us more Frank.
Sincerely, Steve Robinson
I second your opinion regarding Peters excellent choice of a research partner. I share your view that someone with the courage of his convictions is a breath of fresh air around here. You don't even have to agree to endorse the exercise of freedom of speech here.
Imagine saying what you truly believe for a change instead of the self serving, economic determinist, political pandering we often get instead.
Frank has apparently witnessed many things over the years that members of this forum know nothing about...things that have outraged him as well they should anyone.
Tolerance of diversity of opinion defines the worth of this forum. Frank has raised some critical yet poorly understood issues in the "decade of token-reform" that typified the 90"s.
Tell us more Frank.
Sincerely, Steve Robinson
Jaime Baquero":244n654k said:Mike, I am curious. What is your background?
Jaime
I am but a lowly hobbyist, Jaime.
My background matters little: Unless I had a PhD in something marine related, you would just use my background against me.
The truly funny thing is that you are equally critical of those who have said PhD's.
Had you been reading my posts, you probably would have figured my background out already anyway.
Regards.
Mike Kirda
clarionreef
Advanced Reefer
- Location
- San Francisco
Aahh John,
I was looking for something to agree with you on.
The inclusion of Frank Lalo has I believe, far more importance as a witness to things in our "reform decade" than as a DOA/DAA researcher,
I want to hear more about that.
Steve
PS. As an importer of millions of fish thru the years, I am not that interested in what others tell me about DOAs in a previous era...with other importers...thats all.
I was looking for something to agree with you on.
The inclusion of Frank Lalo has I believe, far more importance as a witness to things in our "reform decade" than as a DOA/DAA researcher,
I want to hear more about that.
Steve
PS. As an importer of millions of fish thru the years, I am not that interested in what others tell me about DOAs in a previous era...with other importers...thats all.
John_Brandt":1qyik8le said:Very funny, Steve. My comments were pure sarcasm. With each and every posting the credibility of Rubec's reports diminishes.
John,
Don't discount Frank. His writing may not be pretty but he tells the truth and speaks plainly. He and I share disdain for the political games played within the industry that contribute to the lack of progress. He is sincere. And while he may not be the credentialed researcher that many would like to herald, he at least got off his duff and did something to help shed some light on the problem in hopes of it helping to improve the situation.
John, I have been "polite" with you. As a scientist, I also have been more candid about things than I needed to be. I think that Frank Lallo can substantiate everything that I have published about mortality rates.
I intend to reveal how the MAC discredited the CDT, despite the fact there was nothing wrong with the test procedure. You continue to imply that there is a problem with the CDT. Prove it.
Peter Rubec
I intend to reveal how the MAC discredited the CDT, despite the fact there was nothing wrong with the test procedure. You continue to imply that there is a problem with the CDT. Prove it.
Peter Rubec
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